The Wireless Battleground

So my RSS aggregator is chock full off 2 weeks of mobiledia news about all the latest and greatest wireless handsets. After reading the Q3 numbers it got me to thinking how the 4 major companies (accounting for 78% market share between them) would compete with each other in Q4 and 2006. So I’m taking this opportunity to make a few predictions along with recapping some of the more exciting mobiledia revelations. By the way, if you are a Cell Phone geek you should read www.mobiledia.com, most of the trusted news I get about the wireless field comes from them.

As far as Q4 goes there is no doubt in my mind that Motorola will crush the competition. There is only one idea cooler then the RAZR and that’s the ROKR, which includes iTunes on the phone. The music phone idea isn’t being widely accepted yet in the US, but the common reaction to the idea is always favorable. While I was bragging about my new RAZR phone to a friend recently, he immediately responded that he had gotten “the iTunes phone.” I know personally from the position of a wireless snob, I was very jealous. Luckily he was kidding and my ego was returned in tact with only a large bruise when it came to Music phones. Well in Q4 Motorola combines the two with the RAZR V3i (http://www.mobiledia.com/news/39386.html) which will put iTunes into the RAZR. This phone will be great. Motorola will also debut the RAZR V3c (http://www.mobiledia.com/news/39385.html) which brings the popular design to Verizon’s CDMA technology. This will increase Motorola’s market share in CDMA phones, and deal a direct blow to LG and Samsung. In Q3, LG lead both Motorola and Samsung by 9 percent market share in CDMA handset sales. In Q4, Motorola will top LG and Samsung, claiming number one in both CDMA and GSM sales. They will maintain if not increase the healthy 17% lead over Nokia in GSM markets spurned on by the iTunes RAZR, The new V360 for T-Mobile (http://www.mobiledia.com/news/39442.html) , and the new RAZR colors being offered (http://www.mobiledia.com/news/39384.html). All these Motorola winners will carry them into 2006 as a powerhouse.

Even as LG loses some of its CDMA market share to Motorola, I see opportunity for Samsung to take even more. Samsung just needs to continue its European innovation in slim phones (http://www.mobiledia.com/news/39443.html) in the US market. With fully featured phones under 15mm, LG doesn’t offer much competition. The cool factor is based on functionality and form. With Motorola offering functionality with good form, and Samsung poised to deliver form with decent functionality, things look bad for LG in the near future.

Sony Ericsson is looking to increase its 4% total market share with 3 new low cost handsets (J220a, J230a, and Z300a). Everything about these phones says it’s the free phone you’re going to want to put under the tree for your responsible 13 year old daughter. The very basic features, low cost, heck the Z300a even comes with “Crystal Décor” to decorate the phone with. Everything about this sector of the market makes me recoil in horror, but it does offer a viable customer base, and Sony Ericsson might just have made an incredibly good move here.

Nokia isn’t putting out sweet new handsets that make me drool and praise them here, but they aren’t exactly resting on their laurels either. With the 770 Internet Tablet Debut, successful HSDPA test, and purchase of Intellisync; they are making lots of moves. The 770 and Intellisync acquisition (http://www.mobiledia.com/news/39813.html) seem to point to a more mobile computing focused Nokia. I think Nokia will maintain wireless handset market share in the teens as it focuses in other arenas. Partnering with T-Mobile on the HSDPA (http://www.mobiledia.com/news/39758.html) will provide dramatically better download speeds and could maneuver them into a more innovative company similar to a current Qualcomm, which is at least kind of ironic since Qualcomm is currently suing Nokia (http://www.mobiledia.com/news/39331.html, Nokia’s response can be viewed at http://www.mobiledia.com/news/39329.html).

As far as Providers go I would rather not get far into depth on it. I think Cingular and Verizon will rule the day in Q4. Cingular’s history of innovation (I still remember being jealous of a girlfriend who had “real music” for her ring tones, a Cingular-only service at that time) and Verizon’s level of Customer Care are both great selling points. Verizon has the network, the customer care and now the RAZR, and Cingular has the popularity with the young demographic, and all sorts of cool phones. As far as the future goes, I can’t wait to see what T-Mobile does with the HSDPA.